A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
